Musk: promises and delivery
Musk’s predictions move the price of both companies, so they are worth measuring. Each dated, checkable prediction we could source is scored against what happened. The record is then applied to what he is promising now. Beside it, the ledger he cannot argue with: the revenue and the book value his companies have actually built.
How long his promises take
Time to deliver as a multiple of the time promised, measured from the day he said it. 1× is on time. Promises not yet kept are shown at the right; they are counted, not dropped.
By company
Scored predictions per company.
…
By kind of promise
Dates, volumes, autonomy, finances.
…
What he is promising now, re-dated by his record
Each outstanding promise with the date he gave and the dates his own track record suggests. Optimistic, typical and pessimistic are the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of how late his past promises ran.
…
The revenue machine
Tesla and SpaceX (with xAI and X from 2023) revenue each year. Then ten more years at the pace he has kept, against the valuation model’s combined cases.
Book value: earned and raised
Shareholders’ equity at each year end, split into retained earnings (profit kept) and capital paid in (raised from investors or paid as stock). Both companies combined.
Book value, by company
From the 10-Ks and 10-Qs, USD billions.
…
Every prediction
Sourced and scored. Filter by company or outcome.
…
Method
The stated roadmap
Dated long-range goals, as stated.
…
The mega-claims
Every sourced claim of a $10T-plus outcome.
…