SpaceX + Tesla: the merger and the valuations
What SpaceX, Tesla, and the two combined are worth if they execute badly, as expected, or brilliantly. Revenue is built up segment by segment from drivers, turned into free cash flow, discounted to today, and set against the market. Every assumption is below, with why. Set against Musk’s own record on the Record page.
Company and discounting
The same discount rate for every case: the cases carry the execution risk. The merger assumes SpaceX buys Tesla for stock at a premium to today’s price.
The deal
Exchange ratio, who owns what, and what each side’s shareholders end up with in each case.
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Revenue, reported and projected
Total revenue by case through 2036, from the reported history. Log scale: the cases are a factor of several apart.
Where the revenue comes from, by case
Projected revenue by business. Switch case to see which one carries it.
Free cash flow
Revenue times each business’s cash margin, after capex. Negative while a build-out runs; positive once it pays back.
From cash flow to a share price
Each case, step by step.
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Musk’s plan
The drivers he has put numbers and dates on, each tied to the sourced claim. Face value follows them exactly. Discounted re-dates each by his typical delay and then goes only as far toward it, from the mid case, as the chance his record gives that kind of promise.
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His headline numbers against his own plan
What his operating targets produce, set against the revenue, profit and value he has claimed. A gap means the headline needs more than the plan he has described.
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Assumptions
Every driver, its starting point, its path in each case, and why.
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Cash margins
Free cash flow as a share of revenue, by business: today and the long-run level reached by the ramp year.
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Year by year
Revenue by segment, and free cash flow, USD billions, for the chosen case.
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